脱碳，采矿和转向“铜经济”
几乎每天都有标题气候change and the growing electrification of our economy. India has set a plan to make clean energy account for 40% of power needs by 2030, China is adopting electric vehicles three times as fast as the U.S., and British Columbia has set a goal of phasing out gas-powered cars by 2040. While some proposals to reduce emissions might be described as aspirational, it is clear that the global trend is towards a lower-carbon economy.
The move from a high carbon economy to a low carbon economy is effectively a shift to a “copper economy” because of the important role this metal plays in clean technologies. With our focus on growing our copper production, Teck is uniquely poised to capitalize on the trend toward decarbonization while demonstrating leadership in the global fight against climate change.
为何铜？
The Paris Agreement set a long-term goal of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. The world will need more copper to achieve meaningful reductions in GHG emissions, which is key to limiting the global temperature increase. According to recent research by Bernstein, for every tonne of copper mined and embedded in the global economy, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by an average of 500 tonnes per year. In addition to the normal demand for copper, Bernstein’s research estimates that copper production will need to increase by an additional 3% to 6% per year to provide the copper necessary to meet the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. That is between 11 to 70 million tonnes of incremental copper production by 2030. The lower bound is based on a scenario where high prices incentivise innovations that use less copper, and the upper bound reflects a rapid electric vehicle ramp-up scenario. To put this in perspective, even under the conservative scenario of 11 million tonnes, the world would need to build the equivalent of about three QB2s every year for the next 11 years.
但为什么铜？铜具有独特的材料特性，使绿色技术至关重要，对全球脱碳努力至关重要：
- 电导率：铜具有最高的任何工业金属的电导率，都适用于发电和变速器，以及热交换应用
- 灵活性：铜可以形成，拉伸和加热而不会破碎，使其成为在汽车，智能手机等复杂布线中形成复杂的布线
- 可回收性：铜可以在又一次地再次回收而不会损失性能
结果，与传统能源系统相比，可再生能源系统可能需要多达10倍的铜。零排放电动车最多需要多达4倍的铜作为内燃车辆。需要更多铜来提高现有电气部件的效率，特别是用于传输电力的电动机和部件。
铜价上涨
The decarbonization of the global economy will have a material impact on the economics of copper mining. The price of copper will need to rise to a level that will bring significant new investments in copper production. Bernstein estimates that copper prices will need to be between US $8,300 per tonne and US $11,100 per tonne, compared to an average of $6,112 per tonne in the second quarter of 2019, to achieve the investment in new supply required to meet the Paris targets. While the extent to which the targets will be met is uncertain, clearly, these scenarios present a strong upside for copper and copper-exposed companies, as even partial fulfilment of the Paris Agreement targets would require a substantial price uplift.
Where does Teck fit in?
随着QB2的发展，Teck在看到世界转向绿色经济的转型时，Teck致力于发挥领导作用，同时利用脱碳的趋势。在前五年期间，每年铜等量生产能力为316,000吨，QB2将最初是前20名铜矿，有可能增加到五大或更好的前五名。QB2将转换为一大批主要铜播放器，使公司能够利用我们可以从脱碳的价格升起中受益，同时提供减少全球排放所需的铜。
